998 / 2024-09-20 00:53:38

Sea level rise contribution from polar ice sheets: a model study

SLR; ice sheet; model

Session 23 - Sea level rise: understanding, observing, and modelling

Predicting sea level rise is critical for understanding the long-term impacts of climate change, and ice sheet models play a pivotal role in these predictions. This abstract outlines the use of ice sheet models to estimate future sea level rise, focusing on the dynamics of polar ice sheets, including Greenland and Antarctica, which hold the majority of Earth's freshwater ice. Ice sheet models simulate processes such as surface melt, ice flow, and basal melting, driven by climate variables like temperature and precipitation. These models incorporate physical mechanisms like ice shelf collapse, grounding line migration, and ice-ocean interactions to capture the nonlinear responses of ice sheets to global warming. By integrating ice sheet models with global climate models, researchers can project various sea level rise scenarios based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainties in these models stem from limited observational data and the complexity of ice sheet behavior, particularly around tipping points and feedbacks. Nonetheless, ice sheet modeling provides critical insights for policymakers and coastal communities to prepare for the potential long-term impacts of rising sea levels.