946 / 2024-09-19 21:28:40

LEAP Model Analysis of Low-Carbon Transition in China's Coastal Provinces Based on Offshore Wind Power Development

LEAP model,low-carbon transition,offshore wind power,carbon emmission,power sector

Session 63 - Blue Economy Accounting and Carbon Emissions Reduction

The development of offshore wind power in China's eastern coastal provinces plays a crucial role in achieving the power sector's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. At the same time, it also helps to alleviate the pressure of sending electricity from the west to the east. This study constructs a low-carbon power system based on the development of offshore wind power using the LEAP model with 2010 as the statistical basis, aiming to explore the low-carbon transition path of the power sector in China's coastal provinces. Four scenarios are set up for each province, and the demand, generation structure, carbon emission and generation cost of the power sector under different scenarios are simulated. The results show that total electricity demand will peak after 2050, with 80 percent coming from industrial and building use. In order to achieve net-zero emissions from the power sector in the coastal provinces, the future generation mix is dominated by nuclear energy and offshore wind. Although the developable capacity of deep sea wind power is about three to four times more than that of offshore wind power, given the cost and technical constraints, offshore wind will continue to dominate for some time.