44 / 2024-08-30 15:01:18
Evolution and Tipping Dynamics in Complex Coastal Zone Systems
Coastal zone, complex system, tipping point
Session 24 - Estuaries and coastal environments stress - Observations and modelling
Abstract Accepted
Coastal zones, located at the interface between land and ocean, possess rich spatial, economic, and biological resources along with diverse ecosystems that provide invaluable services to human society. These regions are home to over 50% of the world’s population and are among the most economically active areas, producing approximately 50% of the world’s GDP. However, pressures from human development and climate change have intensified since the Industrial Revolution, particularly over the past five decades, dramatically altering the structure and functions of coastal zone systems and the modes of land-ocean interactions.
Composed of physical, biological, and socio-economic subsystems, coastal zones are typical complex systems. These systems can be modeled using the framework of complex networks of coupled multi-stable subsystems, where tipping in one subsystem can lead to cascading tipping events throughout the entire system. Additionally, the non-linearity in the dynamics of interacting subsystems, the heterogeneity in their modes of interaction, and the presence of multiple time scales add to the complexity of these systems.
This presentation will briefly review the evolution of typical coastal zones in China over the past 50 years, focusing on changes in both coastlines and ecosystems in the context of socio-economic development. Following this review, a new initiative proposed to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) entitled "Evolution and Tipping Dynamics in Complex Coastal Zone Systems" (E-Tides) will be introduced. This initiative will focus on the four major coastal zones of China: the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
The prospective project aims to address three key questions:
Composed of physical, biological, and socio-economic subsystems, coastal zones are typical complex systems. These systems can be modeled using the framework of complex networks of coupled multi-stable subsystems, where tipping in one subsystem can lead to cascading tipping events throughout the entire system. Additionally, the non-linearity in the dynamics of interacting subsystems, the heterogeneity in their modes of interaction, and the presence of multiple time scales add to the complexity of these systems.
This presentation will briefly review the evolution of typical coastal zones in China over the past 50 years, focusing on changes in both coastlines and ecosystems in the context of socio-economic development. Following this review, a new initiative proposed to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) entitled "Evolution and Tipping Dynamics in Complex Coastal Zone Systems" (E-Tides) will be introduced. This initiative will focus on the four major coastal zones of China: the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
The prospective project aims to address three key questions:
- How are human activities and climate change synergistically driving the evolution of complex systems in the coastal zone?
- How can we identify tipping points and analyze tipping processes at the system level?
- How can we optimize sustainable development pathways for the coastal zone complex system?
By addressing these questions, the E-Tides initiative seeks to advance our understanding of coastal zone dynamics and inform sustainable development strategies.