1519 / 2024-09-27 21:37:56

Changes in Heatwave-Driving Circulation Patterns Under Global Warming

Heatwave,Blocking,Climate Change

Session 4 - Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations and Modeling

Extra-tropical continental summer heatwaves often occur under certain circulation patterns, including blocking.  There are recent studies on whether heatwave-driving circulation patterns will be different under global warming.  These different studies reached divergent conclusions through various research methods, which need to be re-examined.  We modify the definition of circulation analog in Jézéquel et al. 2020 (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd) to test the robustness of their results (warming trends conditional on a heatwave circulation).  Regarding Narinesingh et al. 2023 (doi:10.1029/2022GL101211), we will study whether the reduced colocation of blocking and heatwaves can be fully explained by the decrease in blocking.  Furthermore, we use ERA5 and CMIP6 datasets to conduct composite analysis of the circulation patterns during future heatwaves, which further confirm whether heatwave-driving circulation patterns will change.  This work helps with deeper understanding of the driving mechanisms and influencing factors of heatwave events in the context of climate change, and it will also help the prediction and precaution of future heatwave events.