1451 / 2024-09-27 13:33:27

Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change along the coastlines of China Seas

climate warming, coast ecosystem, conservation prioritization, fish fauna, fish redistribution, fully protected MPAs

Session 48 - Ecological and Socio-Economic Benefits of Marine Protected Areas

Climate change poses a major threat to coastal fish biodiversity, necessitating the optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs). We predicted fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas using joint species distribution modeling and prioritized conservation areas with Zonation, employing core area zonation (CAZ) and additive benefit function (ABF). Based on our findings, we developed an expansion plan for no-take MPAs. Under climate change scenarios, fish populations shifted northward along the coast. The Yangtze River Estuary and its adjacent waters segmented these redistributions, suggesting a potential biogeographical barrier. CAZ and ABF approaches conserved significantly more fish habitat than random prioritization (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = –0.36 and –0.62, respectively). ABF better-represented areas with higher species richness, while CAZ better-captured core habitats for species with narrow distributions. Without considering species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were primarily located in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. When accounting for species redistribution, the proposed MPAs were concentrated in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, aligning with the northward species shifts. These MPAs preserved less current fish habitats but protected more high-quality habitats for fish populations in 2050 and 2100 compared to MPAs that didn't account for redistribution, indicating improved long-term fish conservation under climate change. To address coastal fish conservation in the face of climate change, we recommend incorporating species redistribution and balancing trade-offs between areas of high species richness and habitats for rare species. This research provides crucial insights into fish conservation and is a foundation for systematic conservation planning along China's coastlines.