1020 / 2024-09-20 08:18:19

Unveiling cryospheric tipping points and cascading impacts by multi-disciplinary approach

cryosphere,,tipping point,cascading effect

Session 55 - Coastal Zone Evolution and Tipping Process

Identifying and predicting Earth system tipping points (TPs) under future climate scenarios is critical for climate safety and socioeconomic sustainability. Among the 15 to 26 TPs currently identified, 9 are related to the cryosphere, underscoring its significant role of the cryosphere in the Earth system. ­However, several challenges persist in the study of cryospheric tipping points (CTPs): (1) distinguishing between regional and global CTPs, (2) predicting the timing and consequences of CTPs once they are crossed, and (3) understanding the cascading effects of compound tipping elements. In this perspective, we review all CTPs suggested by various researchers using multiple methodologies, highlighting that no single method can reach a consensus on CTPs and emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary approaches. We propose a multidisciplinary research framework that synthesizes data, models, and theoretical foundations from Earth sciences, information sciences, mathematical-physical sciences, artificial intelligence (AI) and complexity science. A paradigm shift towards this integrated framework is a promising solution for addressing both CTPs and other Earth system TPs.